Sunday, March 27, 2016

A Point System to Promote Competition in F1 Racing

F1 bosses have been agonizing over the last decade about how to make the field more competitive. Dominant teams have changed, but, the lop-sided results have continued. Recent change in qualifying and the change back have not gone down really well. But, there might be a way to promote competition with just making a change to how the points are awarded. Change the reward system and I think the driver and team behavior will change!

Under the current system, the winner of the race is awarded 25 points regardless of the margin between the first place and the second place drivers. The points are awarded in the following order: 25, 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1. The drivers in the front can't hope to get more than the 25, even if he were very very good. The drivers at the back can't change the difference (of 7 points at least) to the front runner even if they were closely matched to the front runner. This state of affairs can be changed!


The Relative Position based Scoring (RPS) for Multi-player Multi-event Competition


The new point system I propose will still award 1 point to the 10th placed driver. But, the rest of the drivers are only guaranteed 1 more point than the driver below them. The rest of the points are awarded based on how far the driver's timing is from the 10th placed driver. The points distance is measured in the difference in the final race times of the drivers, treating the race times of the 10 drivers as a population sample of a normal distribution curve. Over multiple events (21 in 2016), the normal distribution assumption is likely to be true, even though individual races might not adhere to the normal distribution curve since we will have 10 drivers over those events.

If you are a driver in ith position, your points are

RPSi=11-i+(101-55)*(Race timei - Race time10)/Σj(Race timej - Race time10)

This formula attempts to distribute the total number of points (101) among the 10 race drivers, with the 10th placed driver getting 1 point.

To generalize this to a N-competitors event that awards T total points and the Nth competitor getting 1 point, the ith competitor points are

RPSi=N+1-i+(T-N*(N+1)/2)*(Race timei - Race timeN)/Σj(Race timej - Race timeN)

So, How does this new system change the points?


To illustrate the RPS points, the Australian GP race points will be modified as follows:

Driver Team Grid Race Time Points RPS Points
1 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 2 1:48:15.565 25 22
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1 +0:08.060 18 20
3 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 3 +0:09.643 15 19
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 8 +0:24.330 12 15
5 Felipe Massa Williams 6 +0:58.979 10 9
6 Romain Grosjean Haas F1 19 +1:12.081 8 6
7 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 10 +1:14.199 6 4
8 Valtteri Bottas Williams 16 +1:15.153 4 3
9 Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso 7 +1:15.680 2 2
10 Max Verstappen Toro Rosso 5 +1:16.833 1 1

With apriori knowledge of the point system, the race will likely be more competitive and exciting! Why do I say that?

Provides Excitement, Even When a Driver is Really Better than the Rest


The first placed driver can potentially get 56 points if he is much better than the rest of the field because the rest of the driver could end up with 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points. I am assuming, of course, that the race winner is way ahead and the rest of the field is bunched up together. This provides huge motivation for the front runner to keep pushing, even when a win is guaranteed. The front runner racing hard till the race end has got to be exciting for the fans!


Rewards Consistency of Car and Driver


Given that a race winner can win big, the cost of inconsistency (of car or driver) can be pretty high. A driver (and car) that is consistently good can win ultimately over a driver that has large ups and downs still.


Low Risk of Race Manipulation


The 10th placed driver is fighting for his 1 point. So, there is little risk of race manipulation from the bottom.


Makes Team Orders Near Impossible


Even in a team that's heads and shoulders over the rest of the field like Mercedes was last year, the two drivers will constantly be battling each other because there's always the possibility of scoring high (56 points) when your opponent (and teammate) could crash out of the event. If the drivers are evenly matched, the team order can potentially only provide an extra point, instead of 7 points now. So, team orders will be less likely, given all the emotional cost involved (Think Red Bull at its peak with Mark Webber getting the raw end of the deal!)


So, What's the Downside


The biggest downside is that fans won't know the points automatically and immediately after the race winner is known. The 10th driver needs to finish the race before the math can be completed, even for the race winner. But, that's a minor downside compared to the advantages the change in reward system brings. 

Also, RPS doesn't prevent situations where two drivers from the same team are at the front of the race, but, one of them is just helping the other win the championship. (Think Schumacher and Barrichello in the 2000s!) Especially, in a race like Monaco where overtaking is hard, RPS might exacerbate the situation. But, many things will have to go right for the front runner. Two drivers in a dominant team with one of them having no aspirations to championship at a race event where overtaking is hard and they are in a 1-2 position. And, even in that situation, the driver at the front is pushing hard till the end of the race to maximize his points. That has to be exciting for the fans!

RPS Can be Implemented Now!


No changes needed to teams, drivers or race venues - RPS is simple change in scoring. Change in reward system is always the best way to change competitive behavior. This applies to individuals and teams (and corporations). Drivers and teams will be motivated to keep pushing the hardest they can till the end! So, is F1 is ready for RPS?